Why People Believe in Conspiracy Theories: A Summary of the Science
What hundreds of studies reveal about the motives behind conspiracy thinking
What factors make us more likely to believe in conspiracy theories? A new meta-analysis of 279 studies finds that belief in conspiracy theories is linked to three core psychological motives: wanting to make sense of the world, coping with uncertainty, and connecting with others. Read the freely available preprint of the paper here.
1. Epistemic Motives: Wanting to Understand the World
Epistemic motives refer to our need to understand what’s true. When people feel uncertain, confused, or overwhelmed by complex events, they may turn to conspiracy theories to feel like they’ve uncovered a hidden truth. Believing in a secret plot can give people a sense of clarity, even if the belief is false. Across studies, people who reported feeling uncertain or who lacked trust in official sources were more likely to endorse conspiratorial explanations.
2. Existential Motives: Wanting Control and Security
Conspiracy beliefs are also tied to feelings of powerlessness or lack of control. When people feel anxious or vulnerable (especially during crises), they may adopt conspiracy beliefs as a way to make the world seem more predictable. These beliefs can offer a kind of psychological defense, giving people someone to blame or a reason for why bad things happen. The review found that people with a stronger need to feel safe or in control were more likely to hold conspiratorial beliefs.
3. Social Motives: Wanting to Feel Good About Ourselves and Our Groups
The third set of motives is social. People sometimes believe in conspiracy theories to feel special, superior, or part of a tight-knit group. These beliefs can foster a sense of identity: “We know the truth, and others don’t.” In particular, people who feel socially excluded or who distrust outsiders are more prone to conspiracy thinking. The desire to maintain a positive image of one's group, especially in the face of perceived threats, also drives this kind of belief. This aligns with research showing that people who believe in conspiracy theories often assume their friends agree with them, reinforcing and stabilizing those beliefs.
Concluding Thoughts
This large-scale review supports the idea that conspiracy theories serve psychological functions. They help people feel more certain, more secure, and more connected, especially when those needs aren’t being met through other means. But the comfort these beliefs provide can come at a cost, including vulnerability to misinformation, increased distrust, and greater social division. What matters most is the perception of lacking certainty, status, or social support. Even if someone is objectively doing well, feeling deprived in these areas can increase their vulnerability to believing falsehoods.
Finally, although this was a large meta-analysis, the effect sizes for each finding were relatively small. This means that while these factors significantly predict belief in conspiracy theories, there's still substantial variability, and other influences likely play a role as well. For example, demographic factors can influence conspiracy beliefs indirectly by shaping psychological motives (e.g., low SES may lead to feelings of powerlessness, which increases susceptibility).
Understanding why people believe in conspiracy theories is the first step in finding better ways to respond, whether through education, empathy, or by addressing the root causes of uncertainty and exclusion.